Will Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer be the nominees in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility with the price surging 50 percentage points over seven days (from 6¢ to 56¢), suggesting a significant news catalyst or shift in candidate viability assessments.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with the price surging 50 percentage points over seven days (from 6¢ to 56¢), suggesting a significant news catalyst or shift in candidate viability assessments. The 57¢ price implies a 57% probability, yet the asymmetric implied yields (69.7% for Yes vs. 112.9% for No) indicate the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, with the No side offering notably higher risk-adjusted returns at 56%. Liquidity is thin at just $965.57 in 24-hour volume against $3,207.70 open interest, and with 412 days to expiry, the market remains highly speculative and susceptible to further sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer advance in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN-SHILTSTE yes 100