Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $98.65 open interest, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $98.65 open interest, suggesting the 45¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 601.1% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than true probability assessment, while the 8¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty. With 103 days to resolution and minimal recent price movement (36¢ to 37¢ over seven days), this appears to be a speculative position with limited trading activity rather than an actively discovered market price.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-AUG01 yes 100