Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Erica Schwartz be confirmed as CDC director before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Schwartz's CDC confirmation odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Schwartz's CDC confirmation odds. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability, yet the implied yield on a "No" resolution reaches 427%, indicating the market may be mispriced or simply abandoned due to lack of liquidity rather than reflecting genuine conviction about her confirmation prospects. With 256 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a dead market that warrants caution for any potential participants.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. Senate confirms Erica Schwartz to the position of CDC director before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCDCCONF-27JAN01-JAN01 yes 100