Will Coventry City win the EFL Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will Coventry City win the EFL Championship?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with Coventry City priced at 96¢ despite zero 24-hour volume and only $5,994 open interest, suggesting the high probability reflects stale pricing rather than active market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with Coventry City priced at 96¢ despite zero 24-hour volume and only $5,994 open interest, suggesting the high probability reflects stale pricing rather than active market consensus. The 15¢ spread is unusually wide for such a high-confidence outcome, and the 6565% implied yield on the No side indicates the market is pricing in virtually zero probability of Coventry failing to win—an implausible scenario for a single team in a competitive league with 32 days to resolution. The sharp 7-day decline from 93¢ to 85¢ combined with 162% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggests recent price discovery, though the lack of volume makes this market potentially illiquid and unreliable for meaningful positions.
Resolution rules
If Coventry City is the 2025-26 EFL Championship Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIP-26-COV yes 100