Everton vs Manchester City Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Everton vs Manchester City Winner?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. Manchester City's contract has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 8 cents over seven days to 61¢ despite minimal liquidity of just $176 in open interest and a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting thin market conditions are amplifying price swings.
Analysis
Manchester City's contract has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 8 cents over seven days to 61¢ despite minimal liquidity of just $176 in open interest and a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting thin market conditions are amplifying price swings. The extraordinarily high implied yields (1112.3% for Yes, 1414.5% for No) indicate severe mispricing or extreme cliff risk, with a Cliff Risk Index of 1 signaling potential resolution ambiguity—likely stemming from the original May 4, 2026 scheduling date now being 29 days out, creating uncertainty about whether the match will actually occur as specified. This combination of low liquidity, high volatility, and approaching expiry makes the market highly speculative and potentially unreliable for serious traders.
Resolution rules
If Manchester City wins the Everton vs Manchester City professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY04EVEMCI-MCI yes 100