What is the current probability for "Everton vs Manchester City Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 18, 2026. 25 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Everton vs Manchester City Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6597.5% and 317.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Everton vs Manchester City Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Everton vs Manchester City Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Everton vs Manchester City Winner?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market shows severe dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 19¢ spread, making the 0¢ bid price unreliable despite the astronomical 14,550% implied yield on the Yes side.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 18/23¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $64.34·OI $130.43·Closes May 18, 2026·25d remaining

KXEPLGAME-26MAY04EVEMCI-TIE

7-day price105 snapshots · 5 regime

21¢18¢ current

Apr 185¢Apr 23

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows severe dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a 19¢ spread, making the 0¢ bid price unreliable despite the astronomical 14,550% implied yield on the Yes side. The extreme realized volatility of 5,303% and cliff risk index of 12 suggest this is either a stale or erroneous quote rather than a genuine pricing opportunity. With 29 days to expiry and the match originally scheduled for May 4, 2026, the market appears illiquid and potentially mispriced—traders should verify actual liquidity before attempting any positions.

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Everton vs Manchester City professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6597.5%

IY (No) 317.9%

Adj IY 6598%

CRI 5

RV 369%

VR 0.47

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6597.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	317.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6598%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	369%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 2:20:50 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 2:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY04EVEMCI-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →