Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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7¢
Bid/Ask 0/7¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $67.06·OI $469.69·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining
KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-ALO
7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime
7¢7¢ current
Apr 142¢Apr 25

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $386 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 18,543% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag typical of illiquid micro-markets where the spread itself (6¢) represents the entire bid-ask range, and the cliff risk index of 16 suggests significant resolution uncertainty or data quality issues. With 31 days to expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a dead market where the 6% probability assigned to Alonso finishing top 10 lacks meaningful market validation.

Resolution rules

If Fernando Alonso finishes in the top 10 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 22376.8%
IY (No) 126.8%
Adj IY 11188%
CRI 13
Overround 8.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)22376.8%
IY (No)126.8%
Adj IY11188%
CRI13
Overround8.7%

Regime

Label
taker
Score
0.636
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/26/2026, 6:00:38 AM
Observability directEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/26/2026, 5:53:36 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-ALO yes 100

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