Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This illiquid micro-market on Pierre Gasly's top-5 finish at Miami shows extreme pricing distortion with a 7¢ bid-ask spread and only $107 open interest generating a nonsensical 15,709% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on Pierre Gasly's top-5 finish at Miami shows extreme pricing distortion with a 7¢ bid-ask spread and only $107 open interest generating a nonsensical 15,709% implied yield on the Yes side. The contract has experienced zero 24-hour volume and declined 1¢ over seven days, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine probability but rather stale quotes in a market too thin to trade meaningfully. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this represents a speculative position rather than a reliable prediction vehicle.
Resolution rules
If Pierre Gasly finishes in the top 5 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-GAS yes 100