Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing July 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest despite a 95-day window to expiration.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest despite a 95-day window to expiration. The 0¢ Yes price implies near-zero probability that FedEx will exceed 17 million average daily packages in Q4 2026, though the astronomical 986.4% implied yield on the No side indicates the market may be mispriced given FedEx's historical package volumes typically exceed this threshold. The wide 10¢ spread and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggest this is a nascent market lacking sufficient liquidity to establish reliable pricing.
Resolution rules
If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17000000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDX-26JUNADV-17000000.0 yes 100