Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.2 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.2 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing July 23, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with only $1.5 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows severe illiquidity with only $1.5 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The extreme implied yields (300.9% for Yes, 487.4% for No) are artifacts of the minimal liquidity rather than genuine market expectations, and the wide 9¢ spread reflects the difficulty in establishing a true equilibrium price. With 95 days to expiration and no recent price movement, this appears to be an abandoned or nascent market that lacks sufficient participation to generate meaningful predictive signals.
Resolution rules
If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17200000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDX-26JUNADV-17200000.0 yes 100