When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that When will nuclear fusion be achieved?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. The market is pricing a 40% probability of fusion by end-of-2029, but the asymmetric yield structure—43.9% for Yes versus 16.5% for No—suggests traders view downside risk as more likely, with the Yes position requiring significantly higher returns to compensate.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 40% probability of fusion by end-of-2029, but the asymmetric yield structure—43.9% for Yes versus 16.5% for No—suggests traders view downside risk as more likely, with the Yes position requiring significantly higher returns to compensate. Volume is extremely thin at just $12 in 24-hour trading against $10.7k open interest, indicating low liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the recent 5-cent decline from 33¢ to 38¢ over seven days may reflect growing skepticism about near-term fusion breakthroughs despite the 1,355-day runway.
Resolution rules
If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFUSION-30-JAN01 yes 100