What is the current probability for "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 558 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1242.8% and 3.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the governorship in California?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Who will win the governorship in California?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market prices Chad Bianco's chances at just 4%, implying an extraordinarily high 2,086% yield for Yes holders despite 566 days to expiry—a significant mispricing indicator given California's Democratic lean and Bianco's limited statewide profile.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 5/7¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $35,969.49·OI $1,197,565.15·Closes Nov 3, 2027·558d remaining

KXGOVCA-26-CBIA

7-day price79 snapshots · 125 regime

7¢5¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market prices Chad Bianco's chances at just 4%, implying an extraordinarily high 2,086% yield for Yes holders despite 566 days to expiry—a significant mispricing indicator given California's Democratic lean and Bianco's limited statewide profile. The 1¢ spread and $1M+ open interest suggest reasonable liquidity, but the 32 Cliff Risk Index flags substantial tail risk, potentially reflecting uncertainty around candidate emergence or late-breaking political developments. The neutral regime score and modest 24-hour volume of $26k indicate this market hasn't yet captured major news flow, making the extreme Yes yield potentially exploitable for contrarian bettors or a red flag for overconfident positioning.

Resolution rules

If Chad Bianco is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1242.8%

IY (No) 3.4%

Adj IY 746%

CRI 19

RV 2353%

VR 5.51

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1242.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	746%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2353%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.51	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	5.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.304

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:20:01 PM

SF edge 1.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +1¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCA-26-CBIA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →