What is the current probability for "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 558 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 588.8% and 7.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the governorship in California?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will win the governorship in California?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 10/12¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $73,620.58·OI $1,711,004.05·Closes Nov 3, 2027·558d remaining

KXGOVCA-26-MMAH

7-day price118 snapshots · 129 regime

21¢10¢ current

Apr 104¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

If Matt Mahan is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 588.8%

IY (No) 7.3%

Adj IY 265%

CRI 9

EE 19.000

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	588.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	265%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	19.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 6:02:23 PM

SF edge 12.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (2)

NO +12¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

NO +20¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 5:53:43 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCA-26-MMAH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →