1.10 to 1.16 · May 2026 temperature increase?: 1
1.10 to 1.16 is priced at 52¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
Price history
52¢ current
+36¢Contract brief
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
1.10 to 1.16
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
1.10 to 1.16 52¢
Range
1¢-52¢
Family volume
$424
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.130
May 28, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
52¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$221
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · May 2026 temperature increase?: 1
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Family volume
$424
Orderbook snapshot
52 / 55¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.130
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 78¢, -26¢ versus this page.
Event family
May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$424
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.10 to 1.16 52¢
Current share
52%
1.10 to 1.16
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.130
1.03 to 1.09
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.060
1.17 to 1.23
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.200
1.02999 or below
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-T1.03
1.24 to 1.30
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.270
1.30001 or above
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-T1.30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
weather
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 52% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.