Apr 2026 temperature increase

30-day trend

Analysis

This market is pricing the probability that June 2026's global temperature anomaly will fall between 1.10°C and 1.16°C above the pre-industrial baseline. The 50% probability on this outcome reflects genuine uncertainty about near-term climate variability. Temperature outcomes depend on the combined effect of underlying warming trends, natural oscillations like ENSO cycles, and volcanic activity. The market is currently tilted toward modest warming in that band rather than either more extreme heat (1.17–1.23°C) or cooler conditions (1.03–1.09°C). Final resolution will depend on official temperature datasets released by agencies like NASA GISS and NOAA, typically published within weeks after month-end. The runner-up outcome at 21% suggests traders see meaningful tail risk toward lower anomalies, while the highest-temperature band at 16% indicates less conviction about record-breaking heat in this specific month.

• ›Ocean temperature patterns and ENSO phase in mid-2026 will directly influence atmospheric heating; La Niña conditions historically cool global temperatures while El Niño warms them
• ›Volcanic aerosol loading and stratospheric optical depth as of June 2026 will partially offset greenhouse-gas-driven warming
• ›The underlying long-term warming trend has been approximately 0.18°C per decade, meaning baseline expectations shift measurably year-to-year
• ›Official temperature data source and methodology (NASA GISS, NOAA, Copernicus, or Berkeley Earth) will determine the exact anomaly value and which contract wins
• ›Market liquidity concentration on the 1.10–1.16°C band ($674 24h volume) suggests professional traders view that range as modal, though the 16¢ price on the warmest band ($1331 volume) reflects active hedging

What moved the line

• Jul 201.17 to 1.23↑8pp32→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 201.24 to 1.30↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 201.10 to 1.16↑6pp21→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 221.10 to 1.16↑6pp32→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 191.10 to 1.16↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in climate

• Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026last 37% · 6d
• Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 6d
• Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 6d
• Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026last 27% · 6d
• Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026last 38% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds