Apr 2026 temperature increase
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
8 contracts
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
39 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Jun 2026 temperature increase
Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.02999 or below
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUN-T1.03
Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.24 to 1.30
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUN-B1.270
Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.17 to 1.23
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUN-B1.200
Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.10 to 1.16
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUN-B1.130
Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.03 to 1.09
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUN-B1.060
Cluster 2
May 2026 temperature increase
Analysis
This 27% probability reflects the likelihood that April 2026 experienced an above-average temperature increase compared to historical baselines. The assessment hinges on two primary factors: actual April temperature readings as they accumulate and finalize, and how those readings compare to the specific baseline period established by each contract. Markets show material disagreement on extremes—some contracts price 54-55°F outcomes at 4 cents while 63-64°F outcomes trade at 97 cents—suggesting uncertainty about regional location and the specific metric being measured. The resolution date is imminent since April 2026 has already concluded, meaning official meteorological data releases and NOAA/weather service finalization of April temperature records will directly determine the outcome. Liquidity concentrates on near-normal temperature ranges rather than extreme scenarios, indicating moderate confidence in moderate departures from baseline.
- ›Official April 2026 mean, maximum, or minimum temperature data from NOAA or equivalent meteorological authority determines the numerator
- ›The specific baseline period (e.g., 1951-1980, 1981-2010, or 20th century mean) against which the 'increase' is measured affects whether the threshold is met
- ›Geographic location of the measurement station (regional variation in warming is substantial) is embedded in contract specifications but creates ambiguity across venues
- ›Contracts pricing 54-55°F at 4 cents versus 63-64°F at 97 cents suggests wide disagreement on the expected distribution, indicating incomplete information about the exact measurement methodology
- ›The 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (26%) is narrow, suggesting reasonable market convergence despite heterogeneous contract designs
What moved the line
- May 311.10 to 1.16↓31pp73→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11.10 to 1.16↑19pp42→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21.10 to 1.16↑10pp61→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 41.10 to 1.16↓10pp72→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21.03 to 1.09↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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