1.03 to 1.09 · May 2026 temperature increase?: 1
1.03 to 1.09 is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
Price history
26¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.03-1.09, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
1.03 to 1.09
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
1.10 to 1.16 50¢
Range
1¢-50¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.060
May 27, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$544
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · May 2026 temperature increase?: 1
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for May 2026 is between 1.03-1.09, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.060
Event family
May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.10 to 1.16 50¢
Current share
41%
1.10 to 1.16
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.130
1.03 to 1.09
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.060
1.17 to 1.23
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.200
1.24 to 1.30
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-B1.270
1.02999 or below
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-T1.03
1.30001 or above
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26MAY-T1.30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
weather
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.