Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Fernando Cavallo win the Cavallo vs Pagotto: M15 Quito Round of 16 match?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 14, 2026. 14 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Fernando Cavallo win the Cavallo vs Pagotto: M15 Quito Round of 16 match?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 324.3% and 21229.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Fernando Cavallo win the Cavallo vs Pagotto: M15 Quito Round of 16 match?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	324.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21229.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10376%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Fernando Cavallo win the Cavallo vs Pagotto: M15 Quito Round of 16 match?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts