Will Bob Brooks be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Bob Brooks be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Bob Brooks is priced at 62¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (655% for Yes, 1900% for No), reflecting extreme uncertainty typical of early-stage nomination markets with 33 days to expiry.
Analysis
Bob Brooks is priced at 62¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (655% for Yes, 1900% for No), reflecting extreme uncertainty typical of early-stage nomination markets with 33 days to expiry. The $31.08 daily volume is thin relative to $16.7M open interest, and the 188% realized volatility combined with a neutral regime (0.409) suggests the market is pricing in significant information arrival before the May 19 primary. The modest 7-day price stability (62¢ to 63¢) contrasts sharply with the high volatility metrics, indicating potential for sharp moves as the nomination contest clarifies.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2bfd24a798b164c430b5dd05603036226820016f971a6b0324fce3e23873d3a5 yes 100