Will Alaves be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Alaves be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,350 open interest, making the 32% price unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,350 open interest, making the 32% price unreliable for decision-making. The astronomical 2,235% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 696% realized volatility and a dramatic 7-day price swing from 10¢ to 30¢ suggests thin order books are driving outsized moves rather than genuine probability shifts. With just 38 days to expiry and a 1.2 info arrivals per hour, this contract is approaching resolution but lacks the depth needed for confident positioning.
Resolution rules
If Alaves is relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-ALA yes 100