Will Real Sociedad be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Real Sociedad be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. Real Sociedad's relegation odds are priced at an extremely low 4¢, implying just a 4% probability, yet the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $221 open interest paired with an unusually wide 85¢ spread.
Analysis
Real Sociedad's relegation odds are priced at an extremely low 4¢, implying just a 4% probability, yet the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $221 open interest paired with an unusually wide 85¢ spread. The implied yield on a "Yes" resolution is extraordinarily high at 22,993%, suggesting either minimal market confidence in the pricing or potential mispricing due to thin liquidity, though with only 38 days until expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market may see sharper repricing if Real Sociedad's relegation odds shift materially.
Resolution rules
If Real Sociedad is relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-RSO yes 100