What is the current probability for "Will Villarreal be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 40¢ (40% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 25, 2026. 30 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Villarreal be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1836.8% and 816.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Villarreal be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Villarreal be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Villarreal be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $12 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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40¢

Bid/Ask 0/40¢·Spread 40¢·Vol $0·OI $12·Closes May 25, 2026·30d remaining

KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-VIL

Analysis

8d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $12 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical implied yields (1437% for Yes, 639% for No) reflect the minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge, and the wide 40¢ bid-ask spread further signals a thin, inefficient market. With 38 days to expiry and Villarreal's historical stability in La Liga, this appears to be a speculative micro-market best avoided until meaningful volume emerges.

Resolution rules

If Villarreal is relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1836.8%

IY (No) 816.4%

Adj IY 918%

CRI 2

Overround 3.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1836.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	816.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	918%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

40¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 6:49:11 AM

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 6:38:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-VIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →