Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Steve Hilton lead the next qualifying NYT poll in the 2026 California gubernatorial race?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 21, 2027. 362 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Steve Hilton lead the next qualifying NYT poll in the 2026 California gubernatorial race?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 82.5% and 123.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Steve Hilton lead the next qualifying NYT poll in the 2026 California gubernatorial race?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	82.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	123.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	54%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Steve Hilton lead the next qualifying NYT poll in the 2026 California gubernatorial race?

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