Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 43%, Polymarket at 19% — a 24pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
2 contracts
Polymarket
19%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
24pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$76K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1669 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 19¢ · 24pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (19¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026” vs “Will another country”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10
0x30a1d6…1b86
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 9
0x5759fb…f692
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 8
0x713ab2…dfda
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 11
0x4fa0df…b39a
Cluster 2
Will another country
Cluster 3
US military action against Cuba by
US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31
0x3de0f3…7de0
Cluster 4
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Cluster 5
Will any country leave NATO by
Will any country leave NATO by...?: December 31, 2026
0x523959…58e9
Cluster 6
Will Russia invade another country in 2026
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
0x8011cf…8229
Cluster 7
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
0x984ee4…677d
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that a country other than the United States conducts military action against Iran by a specified date. At 19%, the probability reflects relatively low near-term risk of foreign military engagement, though not negligible. The assessment hinges on regional tensions, particularly involving Israel and Gulf states, alongside Iran's nuclear program trajectory and rhetoric. Escalation would likely depend on Iranian provocation, a major regional incident, or shifts in diplomatic relations. De-escalation factors include ongoing negotiations, economic pressures on Iran, and international efforts to contain conflict. The resolution depends on observable military strikes, airstrikes, or sustained combat operations meeting specific criteria, with developments in Israeli-Iranian tensions and any Iranian nuclear advances serving as primary indicators of probability shifts.
- ›Israeli military capabilities and stated red lines regarding Iranian nuclear facilities remain the most direct catalyst for potential action
- ›Current status and trajectory of Iranian nuclear enrichment levels relative to IAEA monitoring and international agreement compliance
- ›Regional proxy activities by Iran and responses from Gulf state allies or Israel that could trigger direct military engagement
- ›Diplomatic engagement levels between Iran and international stakeholders, including any active negotiations that could reduce conflict likelihood
- ›Public statements and military posturing from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE regarding Iranian nuclear or military threats
What moved the line
- Jun 3Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?↓10pp17→7¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 310↓7pp18→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 410↑6pp11→17¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 39↓6pp26→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 68↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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