Will Daniel Farke cease to be manager of Leeds before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Daniel Farke cease to be manager of Leeds before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 2¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Farke leaves Leeds before August 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 2¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Farke leaves Leeds before August 2026. The 0¢ current price implies near-zero probability, yet the implied yield on a Yes resolution reaches an astronomical 1403%, indicating the market is severely mispriced or reflects genuine confidence in Farke's job security through the deadline. With 111 days to expiry and recent upward price movement from 16¢ to 19¢, this appears to be a dead market lacking sufficient liquidity to trust the quoted price as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Daniel Farke ceases to be the manager of Leeds starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-DFAR yes 100