Will Eddie Howe cease to be manager of Newcastle before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Eddie Howe cease to be manager of Newcastle before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. The market is pricing Eddie Howe's departure at essentially zero probability (0¢), yet displays extreme yield metrics (1040.7% on Yes) and zero liquidity ($0 open interest, $0 volume), suggesting this is either a newly listed contract or abandoned by traders.
Analysis
The market is pricing Eddie Howe's departure at essentially zero probability (0¢), yet displays extreme yield metrics (1040.7% on Yes) and zero liquidity ($0 open interest, $0 volume), suggesting this is either a newly listed contract or abandoned by traders. The recent 21¢ to 24¢ price movement over seven days contradicts the current 0¢ quote, indicating potential data inconsistency or a sharp repricing that hasn't settled, warranting caution before trading given the illiquidity and 111 days to expiration.
Resolution rules
If Eddie Howe ceases to be the manager of Newcastle starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-EHOW yes 100