Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Aug 1, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of De Zerbi's departure before August 2026, down notably from 6¢ a week ago, suggesting recent confidence in his tenure stability.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 14/18¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $438.25·Closes Aug 8, 2026·107d remaining
KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-RDEZ
7-day price15 snapshots · 3 regime
14¢14¢ current
Apr 176¢Apr 23

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of De Zerbi's departure before August 2026, down notably from 6¢ a week ago, suggesting recent confidence in his tenure stability. The Yes side offers an extreme 2663% implied yield against minimal 24h volume of $135.25, indicating thin liquidity and potential mispricing on the bullish exit scenario. With 111 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 8, the market carries meaningful event risk, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable two-sided participation despite the low absolute volume.

Resolution rules

If Roberto De Zerbi ceases to be the manager of Tottenham starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2099.9%
IY (No) 55.6%
Adj IY 1050%
CRI 6
Overround 4.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2099.9%
IY (No)55.6%
Adj IY1050%
CRI6
Overround4.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 7:31:45 PM
Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 7:23:12 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-RDEZ yes 100

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