Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of De Zerbi's departure before August 2026, down notably from 6¢ a week ago, suggesting recent confidence in his tenure stability.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of De Zerbi's departure before August 2026, down notably from 6¢ a week ago, suggesting recent confidence in his tenure stability. The Yes side offers an extreme 2663% implied yield against minimal 24h volume of $135.25, indicating thin liquidity and potential mispricing on the bullish exit scenario. With 111 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 8, the market carries meaningful event risk, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable two-sided participation despite the low absolute volume.
Resolution rules
If Roberto De Zerbi ceases to be the manager of Tottenham starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-RDEZ yes 100