Will Vitor Pereira cease to be manager of Nottingham Forest before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Vitor Pereira cease to be manager of Nottingham Forest before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 1,406% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a lack of trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 1,406% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a lack of trading activity. The 2¢ spread and recent price movement from 16¢ to 19¢ indicate minimal liquidity depth, making any position risky given the 4 Cliff Risk Index rating. With 111 days to expiry and Pereira's managerial tenure at Nottingham Forest uncertain, the drastically mispriced Yes odds (implying only a 0% probability of his departure) appear disconnected from real managerial turnover risk in professional football.
Resolution rules
If Vitor Pereira ceases to be the manager of Nottingham Forest starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-VPER yes 100