Austin vs Houston Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Austin vs Houston Winner?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 6¢ spread and astronomical 5063.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 6¢ spread and astronomical 5063.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The contract has appreciated 550% over seven days (4¢ to 26¢), indicating either recent information flow or thin-market volatility rather than fundamental repricing. With only 21 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a low-confidence market that should be approached cautiously given the lack of price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Houston wins the Austin vs Houston professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25ATXHOU-HOU yes 100