What is the current probability for "Columbus vs Philadelphia Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Columbus vs Philadelphia Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2600.5% and 2600.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Columbus vs Philadelphia Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Columbus vs Philadelphia Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Columbus vs Philadelphia Winner?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 8¢ spread, suggesting it may be inactive or newly listed on Kalshi.

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51¢

Bid/Ask 50/51¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $7,815.05·OI $7,910.67·Closes May 9, 2026·14d remaining

KXMLSGAME-26APR25CLBPHI-CLB

7-day price228 snapshots · 16 regime

57¢50¢ current

Apr 1849¢Apr 25

Analysis

7d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 8¢ spread, suggesting it may be inactive or newly listed on Kalshi. The 0¢ price (implying Philadelphia is heavily favored or the market hasn't attracted traders) combined with extreme implied yields exceeding 1600% indicates either a pricing anomaly or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish fair value. With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, traders should be cautious about execution risk, and the stalled 7-day price at 51¢ suggests minimal recent trading activity to validate current pricing.

Resolution rules

If Columbus wins the Columbus vs Philadelphia professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2600.5%

IY (No) 2600.5%

Adj IY 2463%

CRI 1

RV 146%

VR 0.30

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2600.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2600.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2463%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	146%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.30	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 10:53:19 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 10:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25CLBPHI-CLB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →