What is the current probability for "DC United vs Orlando Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 9, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "DC United vs Orlando Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7801.4% and 866.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "DC United vs Orlando Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

DC United vs Orlando Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that DC United vs Orlando Winner?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits severe dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and an extreme 39¢ spread, making the 0¢ bid price unreliable for actual trading.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 24/26¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $2,343.35·OI $2,372.63·Closes May 9, 2026·14d remaining

KXMLSGAME-26APR25DCUORL-TIE

7-day price357 snapshots · 8 regime

25¢24¢ current

Apr 184¢Apr 25

Analysis

7d ago

This market exhibits severe dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and an extreme 39¢ spread, making the 0¢ bid price unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 6930% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 15,640% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 4 suggests the market has experienced wild price swings disconnected from fundamental soccer probabilities—a tie in MLS is typically 20-30% likely, not near-zero. With 21 days to expiry and only 2.4 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a dead or manipulated market rather than a genuine pricing mechanism.

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the DC United vs Orlando professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7801.4%

IY (No) 866.8%

Adj IY 3745%

CRI 3

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.04

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7801.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	866.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3745%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 10:53:59 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 10:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSGAME-26APR25DCUORL-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →