Will Gavin Newsom endorse Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial race before Jun 2, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Gavin Newsom endorse Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial race before Jun 2, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable despite a tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable despite a tight 1¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (1081.7% for Yes, 567.2% for No) reflect the minimal capital deployed rather than genuine market conviction, and the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional momentum with 47 days to resolution. The flat 7-day price action and cliff risk index of 1 indicate this is a speculative, low-conviction market where even small trades could significantly move the price.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom publicly endorses Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial race before Jun 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSOMENDORSE-26JUN02-TSTE yes 100