Boston wins by over 1.5 goals?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Boston wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite an 18-day window until expiry on 5/7/2026 and a 40¢ spread, creating a theoretical 37,754% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects zero liquidity ($0 open interest and volume) rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite an 18-day window until expiry on 5/7/2026 and a 40¢ spread, creating a theoretical 37,754% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects zero liquidity ($0 open interest and volume) rather than genuine probability assessment. The 5,104% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 19 suggest this is a thin, illiquid contract where the pricing mechanism has broken down entirely. The underlying event—a Boston hockey win by over 1.5 goals—is a plausible outcome for an NHL game, yet the market's complete illiquidity makes this quote unreliable for actual trading or probability inference.
Resolution rules
If Boston wins by over 1.5 goals in the Buffalo at Boston professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23BUFBOS-BOS1 yes 100