Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24h volume and $1 open interest, making the 2¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 35,727% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24h volume and $1 open interest, making the 2¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 35,727% implied yield on the Yes side. The 53¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and the realized volatility of 6,949% suggests price discovery is severely constrained by minimal trading activity. With 19 days to expiry and the underlying hockey game likely already played or imminent (originally scheduled April 23, 2026), this market may be approaching resolution or already resolved, making the current pricing more of a liquidity artifact than a genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals in the Carolina at Ottawa professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR23CAROTT-OTT1 yes 100