Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals?

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite 20 days to expiry and a scheduled Vegas-Utah hockey game, creating a theoretical 43,317% implied yield on the Yes side.

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30¢
Bid/Ask 29/31¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $927.52·OI $607.52·Closes May 9, 2026·15d remaining
KXNHLSPREAD-26APR24VGKUTA-VGK1
7-day price219 snapshots · 11 regime
28¢28¢ current
Apr 184¢Apr 23

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite 20 days to expiry and a scheduled Vegas-Utah hockey game, creating a theoretical 43,317% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and 57¢ spread suggest this is either a stale or artificially constructed listing with no real market participants, making the yield figure misleading rather than actionable. The 3,265% realized volatility and high cliff risk (24) indicate unstable pricing mechanics, and the April 24 original game date raises questions about whether this event has already occurred or been rescheduled, potentially explaining the complete market abandonment.

Resolution rules

If Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals in the Vegas at Utah professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6152.5%
IY (No) 930.5%
Adj IY 3076%
CRI 3
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)6152.5%
IY (No)930.5%
Adj IY3076%
CRI3
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 7:27:41 PM
Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 7:23:12 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR24VGKUTA-VGK1 yes 100

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