Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite 20 days to expiry and a scheduled Vegas-Utah hockey game, creating a theoretical 43,317% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 0¢ bid despite 20 days to expiry and a scheduled Vegas-Utah hockey game, creating a theoretical 43,317% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and 57¢ spread suggest this is either a stale or artificially constructed listing with no real market participants, making the yield figure misleading rather than actionable. The 3,265% realized volatility and high cliff risk (24) indicate unstable pricing mechanics, and the April 24 original game date raises questions about whether this event has already occurred or been rescheduled, potentially explaining the complete market abandonment.
Resolution rules
If Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals in the Vegas at Utah professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR24VGKUTA-VGK1 yes 100