Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $108 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $108 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 701% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity and wide 6¢ spread rather than genuine market consensus, given the geopolitical improbability of such a meeting occurring in Russian territory during an active conflict. With nearly three years until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If the next Putin and Zelenskyy meeting happens in Russia before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-RUS yes 100