Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia
Leader sits at 14% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hungary
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Switzerland
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2028
937 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in China?: China
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-CHI
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the USA?: United States
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-UNI
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?: Ukraine
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-UKR
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?: Turkey
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-TUR
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?: Switzerland
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-SWZ
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?: Russia
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-RUS
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Hungary?: Hungary
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-HUNG
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Germany?: Germany
KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-GER
Analysis
This represents a 13% probability that Putin and Zelenskyy's next in-person meeting will occur in Russia, based on current market prices. The low probability reflects the ongoing conflict and substantial barriers to diplomatic engagement between the two leaders. Key drivers of this estimate include the current military stalemate, the absence of active peace negotiations, and the international diplomatic environment. The probability could shift significantly if ceasefire talks accelerate or if a third party brokers high-level negotiations. The main uncertainty resolves gradually as time passes—any confirmed meeting announcement before end-2026 would settle the question directly, though markets currently price the likelihood of any meeting by mid-2026 at roughly 4-16% depending on location.
- ›Related contracts price no Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 84%, suggesting markets see a ~16% chance of any meeting occurring this year
- ›Trump-Putin meeting pricing shows 90% probability of no meeting by June 30, 2026, indicating low near-term diplomatic momentum overall
- ›Military operations and territorial control remain contested, with no public peace framework or negotiation timeline announced as of early May 2026
- ›Historical precedent: Zelenskyy has avoided Russia since the 2022 invasion; any meeting would require extraordinary diplomatic breakthrough
- ›Geopolitical intermediaries (Turkey priced at 3%) are considered far more likely venues than Russia if talks were to occur
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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