Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates a 7% chance that Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's next meeting will occur in Russia, compared to a 22% chance in Turkey, which currently leads. The low probability reflects the ongoing conflict between the two countries and the security, diplomatic, and logistical barriers to such a meeting on Russian soil. Factors supporting a Russia meeting would include significant de-escalation or a formal ceasefire agreement that restores diplomatic normalcy. Conversely, sustained hostilities or Western alliance pressure against legitimizing Russian territory would keep probabilities low. The primary uncertainty driver is whether peace negotiations gain momentum and where they would be held—a scheduled summit announcement in any location would immediately shift these probabilities. Resolution depends on either an actual meeting occurring or a clear declaration that such talks will not happen.

• ›No direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting has occurred since the 2022 invasion; diplomatic contact remains minimal and heavily intermediated
• ›Turkey currently leads at 22% probability due to its neutral status and prior role hosting peace talks, versus Russia at 7% reflecting security and legitimacy concerns
• ›Any formal ceasefire or peace framework agreement would immediately increase the probability of meetings in multiple venues, including Russia
• ›Scheduled international summits, UN events, or announced negotiations would create resolution catalysts and shift the probability distribution across all locations
• ›Current market volume ($580 in the Turkey contract vs. $0 in Russia contract) suggests active differentiation between venues rather than uncertainty about whether a meeting occurs

What moved the line

• Sep 17Hungary↓13pp16→3¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Turkey↓12pp29→17¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Hungary↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Switzerland↓8pp13→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18United States↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds