Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. This market is essentially illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $294 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 885.5% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is essentially illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $294 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 885.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price itself, and the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant tail risk around resolution events. With nearly three years until expiry and the ongoing geopolitical situation, the 4% probability appears to reflect genuine skepticism about a meeting occurring on Ukrainian soil, though the asymmetric payoff structure may attract speculative interest if geopolitical conditions shift materially.
Resolution rules
If the next Putin and Zelenskyy meeting happens in Ukraine before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-UKR yes 100