Will Scott McTominay leave Napoli before Sep 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Scott McTominay leave Napoli before Sep 15, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing September 15, 2026. The market is pricing McTominay's departure at just 25%, but the extreme 764% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or very thin liquidity—confirmed by the minimal $50 daily volume and $68 open interest with a wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing McTominay's departure at just 25%, but the extreme 764% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or very thin liquidity—confirmed by the minimal $50 daily volume and $68 open interest with a wide 10¢ spread. With 151 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the modest 2¢ price decline over the past week indicates limited conviction, though the 3 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution near resolution.
Resolution rules
If Scott McTominay transfers out of Napoli before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-SMCT yes 100