Will the spot price of Solana be above $180.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the spot price of Solana be above $180.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability that Solana reaches $180 within the next 258 days, despite the token currently trading near $140-150, requiring just a 20-29% appreciation from current levels.
Analysis
The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability that Solana reaches $180 within the next 258 days, despite the token currently trading near $140-150, requiring just a 20-29% appreciation from current levels. The 6¢ cross-venue gap (24¢ on Kalshi vs. 18¢ on Polymarket) suggests potential arbitrage opportunity, though the extremely thin liquidity ($2 daily volume, $5,143 open interest) and extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2,646% indicate this market may be mispriced due to illiquidity rather than fundamental disagreement. The 533% implied yield on the Yes side and cliff risk index of 4 signal substantial tail risk, making this a speculative position rather than a reliable probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at 16¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Solana is above $180.00 between Jan 1, 2026 and 12:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-180 yes 100