What is the current probability for "Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 781.2% and 28.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 16¢ price on Polymarket implies only a 16% probability of Solana reaching $180 by end-2026, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 747.6% implied yield—suggesting either significant underpricing or market skepticism about the likelihood despite the substantial payoff.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 15/16¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $200·OI $4,700.971·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x88ceaf60937fbe7162bf8b763ac311a96e6d871ecc7f68495cc8cda3adefa52e

7-day price140 snapshots · 9 regime

48¢16¢ current

Apr 813¢Apr 29

Analysis

11d ago

The 16¢ price on Polymarket implies only a 16% probability of Solana reaching $180 by end-2026, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 747.6% implied yield—suggesting either significant underpricing or market skepticism about the likelihood despite the substantial payoff. A notable 5¢ cross-venue gap exists with Kalshi trading at 21¢, indicating potential arbitrage opportunity, though the modest $365k daily volume and $12.5M open interest suggest limited liquidity for large positions. The market's neutral regime score and recent 1¢ price decline over seven days indicate stable but cautious sentiment, with 256 days to expiry providing ample time for Solana's current price action to influence resolution.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 16¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 780.5%Close-time delta 5h

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 781.2%

IY (No) 28.3%

Adj IY 391%

CRI 5

Overround 1.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	781.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	28.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	391%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:03:59 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x88ceaf60937fbe7162bf8b763ac311a96e6d871ecc7f68495cc8cda3adefa52e yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →