Will Walter Trarbach win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?
This contract is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 8¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
5
Family volume
$0
Best sibling
Adam Fisher 38¢
Ticker
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM-WAL
Market snapshot
Walter Trarbach in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Walter Trarbach win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?. The displayed quote is 20¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $582. In the KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM family, this outcome ranks #3 of 5 by current quote across 5 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC.
Outcome
Walter Trarbach
Family rank
#3 of 5
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
20¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
Reported volume
$582
Family context
5 outcomes · KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM
Quote range
1¢-40¢
Family leader
Kai Harada 40¢
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Venue identifier: KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM-WAL. Family volume: —.
Price history
20¢ current
−5¢Orderbook snapshot
10 / 18¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Walter Trarbach has won Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM-WAL
Event family
KXTONYAWARDS-26BSCDOAM.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Kai Harada 40¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.