SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

79th Tony Awards Winner Markets — 95 contracts, SF signal on every row.

95 live Kalshi contracts (97 audited). Median implied probability sits at 13%. 4 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXTONYAWARDS-26BDOAM-TIM -7c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 61.9pp · cheapest KXTONYAWARDS-26BSODOAP-JUS.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXTONYAWARDS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXTONYAWARDS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXTONYAWARDS
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXTONYAWARDS",
    "label": "79th Tony Awards Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 95,
    "volume24hSum": 12660.07,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00878
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$12.7K-65%
min $12.1Kmax $36.7K
Breadth-50%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 08:15 UTC
May 12past 27h · UTCMay 13 · 07:58

Live contracts

95

Median IY

13¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$12.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-7¢

KXTONYAWARDS-26BDOAM-TIM

79th Tony Awards Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 38 of 95 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 23.5 → 5080.4%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d5080.42552.023.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 79th Tony Awards Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 95

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Liberation win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Liberation74¢
IY 55%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.9K
Will Shoshana Bean win Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Shoshana Bean53¢
IY 139%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.4K
Will Ragtime win Best Revival of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Ragtime48¢
IY 170%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.3K
Will Caissie Levy win Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Caissie Levy78¢
IY 44%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$877
Will Nathan Lane win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Nathan Lane31¢
IY 350%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 366%Resid —$708
Will Ben Levi Ross win Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Ben Levi Ross13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$707
Will Hannah Cruz win Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Hannah Cruz6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$671
Will John Lithgow win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: John Lithgow59¢
IY 109%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 402%Resid —$351
Will Cats: The Jellicle Ball win Best Revival of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Cats: The Jellicle Ball51¢
IY 151%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$328
Will Doug Besterman and Mike Morris win Best Orchestrations at the 79th Tony Awards?: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris63¢
IY 92%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 328%Resid —$322
Will Giant win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Giant24¢
IY 498%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$275
Will Susannah Flood win Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Susannah Flood7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$115
Will Daniel Radcliffe win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Daniel Radcliffe5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will Will Harrison win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Will Harrison3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will Schmigadoon! win Best Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Schmigadoon!60¢
IY 105%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$80
Will The Balusters win Best Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: The Balusters3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$71
Will Ali Louis Bourzgui win Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Ali Louis Bourzgui13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$67
Will Mikaal Sulaiman win Best Sound Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Mikaal Sulaiman21¢
IY 591%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$40
Will Titaníque win Best Book of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Titaníque12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$36
Will Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman win Best Revival of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman75¢
IY 52%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$33
95 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 79th Tony Awards Winner Markets

From market_changes
15h agoKalshi
Will Tim Jackson win Best Direction of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Tim Jackson
9¢16→9 (-7)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will Walter Trarbach win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Walter Trarbach
10¢17→10 (-7)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will Shoshana Bean win Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards?: Shoshana Bean
53¢59→53 (-6)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will Takeshi Kata win Best Scenic Design of a Play at the 79th Tony Awards?: Takeshi Kata
3¢8→3 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 May 2026 07:53:38 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXTONYAWARDS →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →