What is the current probability for "What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at The Villages?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 86¢ (86% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 16, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at The Villages?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 364.7% and 16335.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at The Villages?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at The Villages?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at The Villages?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026.

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86¢

Bid/Ask 87/89¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,160.89·OI $4,706.47·Closes May 16, 2026·15d remaining

KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY01C-HOTT

7-day price105 snapshots · 18 regime

87¢87¢ current

Apr 2949¢May 1

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump says Hottest as part of Remarks at The Villages , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 364.7%

IY (No) 16335.8%

Adj IY 15960%

CRI 7

RV 310%

VR 1.35

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	364.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16335.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15960%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	310%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	18.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

5/1/2026, 3:00:48 PM

Depth change (1h) -0.2%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 3:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY01C-HOTT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →