Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

17¢

Bid/Ask 11/17¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $13·OI $2,367.61·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN

7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 8-cent cross-venue gap (17¢ on Kalshi vs. 25¢ on Polymarket) suggests potential arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing in notably lower pardon probability despite identical resolution criteria and timeframe. The extreme implied yield on Yes (1148.2%) reflects the low absolute price, but liquidity is thin at just $13 in 24-hour volume against $2,367 open interest, making the spread economically meaningful and execution risky. With 257 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears underpriced relative to Polymarket, though low volume limits confidence in either venue's true probability assessment.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 25¢(Δ -8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 428.4%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If Steve Bannon has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1148.2%

IY (No) 17.5%

Adj IY 574%

CRI 8

Overround 2.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1148.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	17.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	574%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:21:21 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →