Steve Bannon · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
Steve Bannon is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
Price history
16¢ current
Contract brief
If Steve Bannon has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Steve Bannon
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
John Kiriakou 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$455
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Jun 13, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$455
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Steve Bannon has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 24¢, -8¢ versus this page.
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$455
Outcomes
16
Highest price
John Kiriakou 26¢
Current share
0%
John Kiriakou
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Sam Bankman-Fried
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF
Steve Bannon
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BHWA
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX
Elizabeth Holmes
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EHOL
Edward Snowden
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKUS
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SCOM
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Julian Assange
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JASS
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Braden John Karony
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BJK
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT
Aimee Bock
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ABOC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 16% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.