John Kiriakou · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
John Kiriakou is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
Price history
11¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
If John Kiriakou has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
John Kiriakou
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Charlie Javice 20¢
Range
1¢-20¢
Family volume
$667
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Jun 22, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$284
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$667
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If John Kiriakou has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$667
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Charlie Javice 20¢
Current share
43%
Charlie Javice
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-CJAV
Keonne Rodriguez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-KROD
Roger Ver
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RVER
John Kiriakou
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BHWA
Elizabeth Holmes
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EHOL
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX
Edward Snowden
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKUS
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Julian Assange
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JASS
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Braden John Karony
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BJK
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT
Aimee Bock
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ABOC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.