Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

This market shows extreme volatility (1874% realized vol) and a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing the Yes outcome at 26¢ versus Kalshi at 11¢—a 136% spread that suggests either mispricing or venue-specific liquidity constraints. The 428% implied yield on Yes combined with very low 24-hour volume ($13) and wide 15¢ bid-ask spread indicates thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing on modest order flow. With 256 days to expiry and a high information arrival rate (6.4/hour), the market appears to be pricing in meaningful uncertainty around Trump's pardon decisions, though the 26% probability may reflect recent news flow given the 5¢ price increase over seven days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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