Before Jan 1, 2027 · KXTWOW-27
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
14¢ current
Contract brief
If George R.R. Martin has announced a release date for The Winds of Winter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$337
Identifier
KXTWOW-27-JAN01
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$337
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$337
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If George R.R. Martin has announced a release date for The Winds of Winter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTWOW-27-JAN01
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 11¢, +3¢ versus this page.
Event family
KXTWOW-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$337
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 11¢
Current share
100%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXTWOW-27-JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.