Winds of Winter release date announced?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Winds of Winter release date announced?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 11% probability of a Winds of Winter release date announcement by end of 2026, with an extremely asymmetric risk profile where a Yes resolution would yield 1,268% compared to just 15.6% for No—typical of low-probability, high-payoff events.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 11% probability of a Winds of Winter release date announcement by end of 2026, with an extremely asymmetric risk profile where a Yes resolution would yield 1,268% compared to just 15.6% for No—typical of low-probability, high-payoff events. Liquidity is thin at $238.62 daily volume against $7.4k open interest, and the 1,080% realized volatility with a 2.97 vol ratio suggests this market experiences sharp, episodic moves despite the flat 7-day price action. The 9/10 cliff risk index and 259-day timeframe indicate significant tail risk concentration near expiration, making this a speculative position rather than a fundamental probability assessment.
Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ -8¢)
Resolution rules
If George R.R. Martin has announced a release date for The Winds of Winter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTWOW-27-JAN01 yes 100