Will GTA 6 be delayed?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Will DtMF be the #
Will DtMF be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF
KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-DTMF
Will DtMF be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-DTMF
Cluster 3
Will Iceman be the #
Will Iceman be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Iceman
KXTOPALBUMRUNNERUPUSA-26-ICE
Will Iceman be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Iceman
KXTOPALBUMTHIRDUSA-26-ICE
Cluster 4
will babydoll be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will end of beginning be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will i’m the problem be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will the life of a showgirl be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will morgan wallen be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 11
will petal be the #3 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 12
will your idol be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 23Babydoll↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21End of Beginning↑7pp11→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22End of Beginning↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Drake↓5pp75→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Babydoll↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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