Will GTA 6 be delayed?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Will DtMF be the #
Will DtMF be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF
KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-DTMF
Will DtMF be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: DtMF
KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-DTMF
Cluster 3
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will babydoll be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will bruno mars be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will the life of a showgirl be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will i’m the problem be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will end of beginning be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will iceman be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 11
will morgan wallen be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 12
will petal be the #3 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 13
will your idol be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 7Drake↑6pp36→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Taylor Swift↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2End of Beginning↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in technology
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.0T-1.5Tlast 3% · 1d
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 9d
- Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPOlast 85% · 14d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500Blast 4% · 14d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.