Will GTA 6 be delayed?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
13 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
102 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will Drake be the #” vs “will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Cluster 2
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will babydoll be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will bruno mars be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will end of beginning be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will the life of a showgirl be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will i’m the problem be the #1 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will iceman be the #2 most streamed album on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 albums usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will dtmf be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will morgan wallen be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 11
will your idol be the #3 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This market measures the probability that Grand Theft Auto 6 will experience a release delay from its currently announced date. At 29%, traders are pricing in a better-than-average but not overwhelming chance of postponement. The probability reflects uncertainty about Rockstar Games' development timeline and ability to meet production targets for a major franchise release. Key drivers include the complexity of open-world game development, any official statements from Rockstar about progress, and comparative data from past Rockstar releases and their track record on deadlines. The resolution hinges on Rockstar's official announcement of either a confirmed release date or an explicit delay notification, which typically occurs during company earnings calls, industry events, or dedicated game announcements.
- ›Rockstar's historical pattern with release dates for GTA titles and other major franchises
- ›Current development status indicators such as trailer releases, gameplay demos, or developer statements about completion progress
- ›Industry-wide delays in AAA game development post-2020 and their frequency among comparable high-budget titles
- ›Any supply chain or technical challenges specific to the gaming industry affecting manufacturing or distribution
- ›Official communications from Rockstar or parent company Take-Two Interactive regarding launch timelines
What moved the line
- Sep 19End of Beginning↑35pp45→80¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18End of Beginning↓26pp71→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Babydoll↑13pp1→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Drake↑5pp77→82¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Drake↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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