What is the current probability for "Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 13, 2026. 20 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 34381.0% and 95.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 13, 2026.

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30¢

Bid/Ask 6/26¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $0·OI $31·Closes May 13, 2026·20d remaining

KXUCLSPREAD-26APR29ATMARS-ARS1

7-day price28 snapshots · 1 regime

10¢6¢ current

Apr 211¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

If Arsenal wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Atletico vs Arsenal professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 34381.0%

IY (No) 95.2%

Adj IY 34381%

CRI 19

RV 6308%

VR 1.50

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	34381.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	95.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	34381%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6308%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.50	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

20¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 3:07:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 2:53:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUCLSPREAD-26APR29ATMARS-ARS1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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